As the prediction market boom continues, backlash is growing, too, with Arizona filing criminal charges against Kalshi and public outcry after Polymarket traders threatened a journalist. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted a video on Wednesday of six men decked out in business casual doing push-ups on the sidewalk. "This is how Kalshi Q1 board meeting ended," he wrote on X. The board members are laughing and smiling in the video after their impromptu cardio session, and the mood is jubilant. The next day, it became clear that the team had ample reason to celebrate: Kalshi had just raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, making the company worth on paper roughly double what it was only a few months ago.

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Linear contextual bandits represent a fundamental class of models with numerous real-world applications, and it is critical to developing algorithms that can effectively manage noise with unknown variance, ensuring provable guarantees for both worst-case constant-variance noise and deterministic reward scenarios.

Rare-events data refer to binary-response data that are highly imbalanced, i.e., the number of zeros